If a convincing and realistic case is to be made for the use of Planetary Boundaries as a commercial sustainability framework, there are a couple of bases to be covered first. To start with (and what this post will take care of), understanding Rockström et al.’s concept in a little more detail, and then (in the following posts) adding context to the facts and figures by exploring how industrial activity contributes to each boundary variable.
At the heart of the theory are the 9 critical Earth-system processes identified by the team at the Stockholm Resilience Centre. These are:
· Climate change
· Rate of biodiversity loss
· Interference with Nitrogen and Phosphorus cycles
· Stratospheric ozone depletion
· Ocean acidification
· Global freshwater use
· Change in land use
· Chemical pollution
· Atmospheric aerosol loading
The thresholds of those in red have already been crossed and those in blue are rapidly being approached. Rockström et al. go into some detail regarding the former, which I have summarised below.
Climate Change
Anthropogenic climate change is now beyond dispute and the fact that the effects of breaching the following 2 parameters are already being seen, has contributed to the exacting of this threshold.
· 2 parameters used to set climate change thresholds:
o Atmospheric concentration of CO2 (threshold = 350ppmv; current = 390ppmv)
o Radiative forcing - the rate of energy change per unit of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere (threshold = 1Wm-2; currently = 1.5Wm-2)
o A critical threshold of between 350ppmv and 550ppmv is observed from past Palaeoclimate data from the last 100 million years and subsequently, these thresholds aim to maintain the large polar ice sheets today.
Rate of Biodiversity Loss
Whilst extinction is natural, during the Anthropocene biodiversity loss has accelerated massively and currently, the rate is estimated to be between 100-1000 times that which could be considered natural.
Although quantifying a boundary for biodiversity loss is difficult, we can say with some certainty that Earth cannot sustain the current rate for much longer without incurring seriously detrimental consequences.
Nitrogen and Phosphorus Cycles
Modern agricultural practices (i.e. fertilizers) are a huge proportion of human dealings with N2, which in total convert more N2 from the atmosphere into reactive forms than the combined effects of terrestrial processes. Similarly, we are processing roughly 8 times the natural background rate of Phosphorus influx.
Detrimental effects include: pollution of waterways and coastal zones, accumulation in land systems, adding a number of gases to the atmosphere, enhancing the greenhouse effect and shifting lake systems from clear to turbid.
What Rockström and his team have done here is actually more progressive than it might seem. For decades now, we have been aware that our activities could have environmental implications but have perhaps always adopted the ‘leave it to the next generation’ mind set. However, this piece is both timely (in the sense that ‘too late’ seems to be edging ever-closer) and constructive (in the sense that from it, we can know exactly where we stand). And whilst there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding the set thresholds, there is little doubt that each variable is increasing continually. So basically, either way you look at it, we should be urging actions now rather than later.